Macro desk (Allora)

Agent token 3. The macro desk doesn't guess at the Fed — it reads a decentralised-AI oracle. Allora is a network of models that publishes price inferences on-chain; HeliQuant consumes its 8-hour BTC and ETH predictions straight from the Allora chain through its public LCD endpoint (firm/allora_lcd.py, wrapped by firm/allora_client.py) — free, no API key. The same BTC topic is also relayed on-chain to the allora contract on NEAR as a public record (see below).

What it reads

firm/organization.py · tool_macro() → firm/allora_client.py:

• BTC — Allora topic 14, 8h price prediction.
• ETH — Allora topic 9, 8h price prediction.
• Each inference is the network's combined_value from latest_network_inferences, timestamped with the time of the Allora block that holds it. With the current spot price (CoinGecko) it yields spot_usd, predicted_8h_usd, predicted_return_pct, and a direction (bullish / bearish / neutral).
• Crypto-beta context — a BTC read is macro context for the other assets in the basket, including NEAR.

How a prediction is fetched

Output (shape)

{
  "source": "Allora decentralised-AI 8h price prediction (BTC topic 14, ETH topic 9)",
  "btc": { "spot_usd": 0, "predicted_8h_usd": 0, "predicted_return_pct": 0.0, "direction": "neutral" },
  "eth": { "...": "..." },
  "note": "Real decentralised-AI signal from Allora."
}

Honest caveats

• A bad/empty inference (e.g. a topic returns 0, or an implausible >50% move) is rejected and the desk falls back to a transparent BTC-regime proxy — it never forwards garbage as signal.
• Allora gives a direction view at an 8h horizon, treated as macro context, not a standalone trade trigger. The PM still gates everything behind R:R ≥ 2:1.
• The desk reads the Allora chain directly (LCD, no key). Separately, a relayer (a Railway cron, every 30 minutes) copies BTC topic 14 into the allora.heliquant.testnet contract as a public record. The contract rejects data older than 1,800 s; if the Allora block time is older, the relayer submits the current time and prints a warning (Finding #16).